关键词:
输沙量
黄河下游
气候变化
经验模态分解
摘要:
黄河是我国的第二大河,也是世界上含沙量最高的河流,其丰富的水资源和水能资源为黄河流域社会经济发展提供了重要保障,近几十年来,由于受到人类活动和气候变化的影响,黄河流域水沙特性在一定程度上发生了变化,黄河下游河段演变的机理复杂,水沙变化程度在空间上分布不均,影响水沙数据变化的因素众多。本文利用泺口水文站70年的输沙量资料,应用数理统计方法分析输沙量的多年变化趋势,并引入气候影响因子,对输沙量进行多尺度的变化特性研究。分析结果表明,黄河山东段输沙量变化呈现明显的趋势性和周期性,近70年来的输沙量出现由下降到缓慢上升的过程,输沙量受到宏观调控影响较为明显,并且月输沙量的中高频模态与ENSO相关性较高,说明极端气候与泺口站的输沙量整体变化波动趋势具有一定的联系。The Yellow River is the second largest river in China and the river with the highest sand content in the world, and its rich water resources and hydroelectric resources provide an important guarantee for the socio-economic development of the Yellow River Basin. In recent decades, due to the influence of human activities and climate change, the water-sand characteristics of the Yellow River Basin have changed to a certain extent. The mechanism of the evolution of the downstream section of the Yellow River is complicated, and the degree of water-sand change is unevenly distributed in space, and there are many factors affecting the change of water and sand data. In this paper, we use 70 years of sand transport data from the Luokou Hydrological Station, apply mathematical and statistical methods to analyze the multi-year trend of sand transport, and introduce the climate influence factor to study the multi-scale change characteristics of sand transport. The analysis results show that the change of sand transport in the Shandong section of the Yellow River shows obvious trend and periodicity, the sand transport in the past 70 years shows a process from decreasing to slowly increasing, the sand transport is more obviously affected by macro-control, and the medium and high frequency modes of monthly sand transport have high correlation with ENSO, which indicates that the extreme climate is related to the overall fluctuation trend of sand transport in the Luokou Station to a certain extent.