关键词:
碳排放
时空演变
核密度估计
空间杜宾模型
摘要:
文章首先基于碳排放系数法,科学测度2008~2022中国30个省份的碳排放水平;其次运用kernel密度估计分析各地区碳排放量的动态演进特征;最后,在进行空间相关性检验的基础上,构建时间固定效应的空间杜宾模型,对碳排放量的影响因素进行分析。研究表明:我国及各省份的碳排放量均呈现上升趋势,在空间分布上,高碳排放量省份主要集中在东部及东部沿海,集聚特征明显,不平衡问题显著,经济发展水平、城镇化率、科技发展水平、产业结构均对碳排放量产生影响,其中,经济发展水平、科技发展水平对碳排放具有促进作用,城镇化率、产业结构对碳排放均有抑制作用,且科技发展水平、产业结构存在空间溢出效应。Firstly, based on the carbon emission coefficient method, this paper scientifically measures the carbon emission level of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2022. Secondly, kernel density estimation was used to analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in each region. Finally, on the basis of the spatial correlation test, the spatial Durbin model of time-fixed effect is constructed to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission. The research shows that: In terms of spatial distribution, provinces with high carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the eastern and eastern coastal areas, with obvious agglomeration characteristics and significant imbalance. The level of economic development, urbanization rate, scientific and technological development level, and industrial structure all have an impact on carbon emissions. The level of economic development and scientific and technological development can promote carbon emissions, and the urbanization rate and industrial structure can inhibit carbon emissions, and the level of scientific and technological development and industrial structure have spatial spillover effects.